Risk Analysis

Can the past be a reliable guide to the future?

Can the past be a reliable guide to the future?

Many important decisions about planning for flooding rely on statistical assessments of risk. This one-day workshop enabled communication and discussion between academics and practitioners on the technical, practical, scientific and risk management implications of applying non-stationary statistical models to flood event data

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A national perspective on the probability of extreme river flows

A national perspective on the probability of extreme river flows

The Government’s 2016 National Flood Resilience Review[1] (NFFR) found that “while the probability of an extreme river flow that could result in a severe flood at any given location is very small, such flows are not unusual when considering the whole country”. This statement was one of the conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) [...]

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Flood resilience in a changing environment: what do recent reviews tell us?

Flood resilience in a changing environment: what do recent reviews tell us?

Flood risk and resilience have been under review in recent years, following severe flooding in 2013/14 and 2015/16, previous flood events and concerns over changes in physical and economic climates. This talk examines some important governmental and technical reviews, discussing scientific themes that run through them: The National Flood Resilience Review (September 2016) House of […]

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Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

An international expert elicitation workshop provides new insights into the vulnerability of UK bridges to scour

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Bridge scour: Fragility and risk analysis

Bridge scour: Fragility and risk analysis

Professor Rob Lamb, Director of JBA Trust, provides an update on our collaborative research with the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) team at Oxford University.

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Improving statistical models of large scale flood events: Project outputs

Improving statistical models of large scale flood events: Project outputs

A poster, presentation and workshop resources from the research carried out by Ross Towe.

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How well do flood defence models match reality?  A Comparison of Actual Fluvial Embankment Flood Defence Performance to RASP Estimated Performance

How well do flood defence models match reality? A Comparison of Actual Fluvial Embankment Flood Defence Performance to RASP Estimated Performance

MSc project poster – a summary of the research carried out by Janie Haven for her MSc in Water and Environmental Management at the University of Bristol.

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Flood and scour related failure incidents at railway assets

Flood and scour related failure incidents at railway assets

We have published a consolidated chronology of railway asset failures relating to flooding for the period 1846 to 2013. The most common failure mechanism was found to be the undermining of abutments or piers by scour, resulting in their collapse.

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Tools and guidance for covariate analysis of flood and wave threshold exceedances

Tools and guidance for covariate analysis of flood and wave threshold exceedances

This NERC funded project aimed to transfer advances in statistics to flood risk science.

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How well do flood defence models match reality?

How well do flood defence models match reality?

The JBA Trust worked with MSc student Janie Haven to compare national flood risk assessment models with real flood events.

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