PhD researchers

Our support for PhD students trains new researchers and enables the delivery of high quality evidence

Our collaboration with universities enables us to support graduate researchers in developing advanced skills, and delivers high quality scientific evidence that helps enhance understanding of risks in the environment.

Tharindu Manamperi, Swansea University

AI-assisted decadal scale beach change forecasting

As sea levels rise and extreme weather events become more frequent, quantitative prediction of beach morphodynamic change is becoming increasingly important, particularly at decadal temporal scales.

Process-based models can simulate short-term beach change, however high computational costs, forcing uncertainties and process uncertainties limit their application to longer-term scenarios. Tharindu’s research will combine physical process-based models and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to train an AI-based emulator to capture decadal scale beach morphodynamic change.

The first stage of project will use a high-resolution historic (over 35 years) beach change and wave dataset to develop the emulator. In the second stage, the emulator will be tested and improved against a diverse set of sites with the intention to transform it into a generalised beach morphology prediction tool.

Tharindu is supervised by Professor Harshinie Karunarathna and Dr Alma Rahat (Swansea University), and Dr Doug Pender and Dr Demetra Cristaudo (JBA Consulting). The project is jointly funded by EPSRC and JBA Trust.

Freya Muir, University of Glasgow

Real-time monitoring and modelling of coastal change

Freya’s research aims to use satellite-derived information about the coast to build a data-driven coastal change prediction system. Coastal areas are directly influenced by climate change, where rising sea levels and increases in wave activity and storm severity lead to greater damage to coastal infrastructure and increased flood risk.

To predict where and how these storm-driven changes might impact vulnerable communities, traditional models have tried to simulate the many different interacting processes at the coast. However these physics-based models are inefficient to run, paired with field data that is difficult to obtain. Novel satellite-derived observations of the coast now offer an opportunity to map coastal change on a daily–weekly basis. These many observations are well suited to data-driven models such as those built using machine learning algorithms.

By using freely available satellite observations and machine learning techniques, Freya hopes to create and test a semi-automated framework which gathers and processes information about much larger areas of coast, and feeds observations directly into a shoreline change prediction algorithm – an early warning system for the shore.

Freya is supervised by Dr Martin Hurst and Prof Larissa Naylor (University of Glasgow), Dr Carlos Loureiro (Stirling University), Dr Alistair Rennie (NatureScot) and Dr Doug Pender (JBA Consulting). The project is funded by the NERC IAPETUS2 doctoral training programme with support from JBA Trust.

Ben Bluck, University of Southampton

Enlightened fisheries engineering

River fragmentation is a major risk for fish population security. However, much of the research on fish passage has focused primarily on the physical impacts of larger-scale river barriers such as dams and weirs.

Ben is researching the effects of culverts as behavioural barriers to fish passage, specifically through behavioural responses to the rapid light transitions at culvert entrances.

Through the use of behavioural choice experiments and passage success assessments, this research will aim to understand: how the rapid light transition at culverts affects fish behaviour and passage; and whether the use of artificial light, or modified culvert designs, could effectively mitigate any negative effect, or even induce increased fish passage through culverts and other shaded areas (such as different barrier types).

Ben is based at the International Centre for Ecohydraulics Research with supervision by Professor Paul Kemp and Dr Andrew Vowles at the University of Southampton, Jon Whitmore of JBA Consulting and Dr Perikles Karageorgopoulos of the Environment Agency. This project is funded by NERC through the INSPIRE doctoral training programme with support from JBA Trust.

Sohaib Imran, Lancaster University

Enterprise risk modelling

Sohaib’s research will investigate how the physical climate risks carried by a business, organisation or sector could be assessed based on analysis of Earth observation data, linked with other sources of information such as published risk disclosures.  The project will apply image processing and machine learning methods to identify and classify types of assets, and explore their representation within spatial networks.  Sohaib aims to develop a geographical visualisation tool that enables users to understand the spatial climate risks to an enterprise.

The project is funded by the European Regional Development Fund through the Centre for Global Eco-Innovation with support from JBA Trust.  Sohaib’s advisory team is Professor Peter Atkinson at Lancaster University and Rob Lamb at JBA Trust.

Luke Jenkins, University of Southampton

Storm clustering and its influence on coastal morphology and defences

The coastal zone is widely recognised as important at national, European and global levels, but is facing increasing pressures from climate change. A 2018 Committee on Climate Change report highlighted the urgency of increasing threats from flooding and coastal erosion in the UK. It calls for improvements in calculation of failure probabilities of coastal structures, reductions in uncertainty about coastal erosion and better understanding of coastal geomorphology, and its response to climate change. Many risk assessments consider the impact of individual storms, but the risk from sequences of storm events, which may occur over different time-scales, are harder to assess.

Luke’s research will examine the impact that sequences of storm events have on the dynamic response of hard and soft coasts and the subsequent impact on communities living in the coastal zone.

Luke’s advisory team is Prof Ivan Haigh at the University of Southampton, Dr Doug Pender of JBA Consulting and Jenny Sansom of the Environment Agency. This project is funded by NERC through the INSPIRE doctoral training programme with support from JBA Trust.

Helen Hooker, University of Reading

Enhancing forecasting flood inundation mapping through data assimilation

Helen’s research aims to improve the capability of real time 2D flood forecasts using data assimilation from earth observation or point data sources.  A key aspect of data assimilation is comparison of computational forecast data with observations. However, the scales used in a computational model may be very different to those observed (for example, consider the comparison between an average over a large area with a measurement at a point).  Therefore, it is important to first understand the spatial scales of variability in the forecast model to make a fair comparison.

Helen will study an ensemble forecast (where many forecasts are run, each with slightly different starting conditions) and develop methods to work out the scales at which we can reliably discriminate between forecasts.  This is valuable for qualitative interpretation of forecasts for end users as well as for quantitative comparisons with observations.  Ultimately, Helen will develop methods for comparing models with observations that take account of these scale differences, before building a full data assimilation system.

This project is funded by the NERC SCENARIO DTP with support from JBA Trust.

In this article, Helen explores the importance of earth observation (EO) data for identifying flood extents and how her research has developed a new method for validating flood maps to enable a quantitative, location specific measure of flood map accuracy.

Andrew Johnson, University of Leeds

The role of habitat quality in determining river ecosystem resilience to extreme hydraulic events

Andrew is investigating the influence of channel modification and heterogeneity on the ability of freshwater communities to resist extreme flow events, in particular freshwater macroinvertebrates.  The project will determine the optimal techniques to assess the health of macroinvertebrate assemblages, and identify a threshold for significant flow events.  It will also assess the mechanisms through which habitat heterogeneity and modification can influence the resistance and resilience of freshwater communities.

Ultimately, this project will provide a comprehensive model and methodology for policy-makers to assess the vulnerability of freshwater communities to extreme hydraulic events, and provide advice on the best techniques to enhance resistance and resilience.

This project is a CASE Studentship funded by NERC, undertaken in partnership with the Environment Agency, JBA Consulting, the University of Leeds, and the University of Birmingham.  The wide array of expertise and knowledge provided by this partnership offers a unique opportunity to develop robust decision-making tools and broaden our scientific understanding of freshwater ecosystems.

Josephine Westlake, University of Lincoln

Improving flood risk assessment using documentary and floodplain sedimentary archives

Josephine is working on extending the flood event series on the Yorkshire Ouse, Trent and Witham rivers by analysing documentary and sedimentary records throughout the Holocene.  In the UK, flood risk assessment is traditionally based on extrapolating instrumental records extending back little more than 50 years. This statistical method excludes larger events with longer return periods which occurred prior to the recording of instrumental data. It also fails to account for changes in channel dimensions, land use and climate over time. The inclusion of primary data from historical and prehistorical events aims to improve flood frequency analysis accuracy by accounting for these factors.

The project is being undertaken at the University of Lincoln, in partnership with the Environment Agency and JBA Consulting who are providing expertise in modelling and hydrological processes and guidance on how the research could be applied.

Ultimately this research aims to provide evidence that geomorphological data can support existing methods of flood frequency analysis to deliver more reliable risk assessments, particularly for high impact, low return period events.

Josephine’s interim research outputs on exploring the origins of watercourses using sedimentary archives are summarised here.