Exploring uncertainty in flood risk estimates using low-complexity modelling

Luca Brusasco, a PhD researcher at the University of Bristol, is investigating how we can quantify and use uncertain flood information when making investment decisions about flood resilience.

By using a low-complexity flood modelling approach based on HAND (Height Above Nearest Drainage), Luca was able to explore flood risk uncertainty without relying on computationally expensive hydrodynamic models.

Comparing uncertainty profiles across many catchments could help understand the drivers of flood risk uncertainty at scale and identify where more detailed modelling is most needed.

Luca shared his research progress and presented a poster at the 16th National Hydrology Symposium in Leeds on 4 September 2026.

We’re pleased to be able to support Luca’s PhD research through our doctoral research and training programme.

Funding and support

Luca’s research is funded by NERC through the FLOOD-CDT programme with support from JBA Trust.

The supervisory team includes Dr Francesca Pianosi and Dr Ross Woods (University of Bristol) and Professor Rob Lamb (JBA Trust).